Saxenda’s potential to reduce the risk of CV events will grow the obesity market from $533m in 2016 to $1.2bn in 2026.
The US obesity market is expected to increase in value from $533m in 2016 to $1.2bn in 2026, at a compound annual growth rate of 8.0%. Growth will be driven by increased use of branded pharmacological therapies to treat obesity, as well as the rising incidence of the disease. Increased use of Saxenda (liraglutide; Novo Nordisk/Johnson & Johnson) will be the primary driver of growth in this market during the forecast period, although Qsymia (phentermine/topiramate; Vivus) and Contrave (bupropion/naltrexone; Orexigen) will also contribute. Growth of these drugs is expected to overcome the slightly reduced use of Belviq (lorcaserin; Eisai) and Xenical (orlistat; Roche).
The market for weight loss drugs in the US has traditionally been small with slow growth, despite the size of the obesity population and the rapidly increasing incidence. The cardiovascular benefit demonstrated by Victoza (liraglutide; Novo Nordisk) in type 2 diabetes is expected to change this trend, driving impressive growth of Saxenda in obesity. However, while the value of the market will more than double by 2026, it is still only expected to reach a fraction of its potential worth. The majority of physicians are still expected to prefer non-pharmacological treatment for their overweight and obese patients. This leaves lots of room for potential growth in the weight loss drug market.
Obesity market sales in the US ($m), by drug, 2016–26