Generating over 80% of multiple sclerosis (MS) sales in 2025, the US will dictate the overall market dynamics during the entire forecast period. While revenues in all countries are set to expand from 2016 to 2025, those in the US will show the highest growth. Datamonitor Healthcare estimates MS sales in this market will expand from $14.1bn to $26.2bn between 2016 and 2025, growing at an impressive compound annual growth rate of 7.1%. Two key factors will drive the growth of this market: a significant number of pipeline drug launches are expected to create new revenue sources, while continued price inflation in the US will allow established brands to maintain high revenues despite a loss of volume share. Finally, it is important to note that the US has the largest patient pool of all markets forecasted. With over 400,000 diagnosed prevalent MS cases in 2016, its patient population is over three times larger than the second biggest market in this forecast, the UK (see Datamonitor Healthcare’s Epidemiology: Multiple Sclerosis).
The substantial growth of the US segment – and of the overall MS market – is highly contingent on the ongoing price increases seen in the country. The rising costs of drugs in the US – both in MS and in other indications – are at the forefront of many political discussions. Datamonitor Healthcare therefore recognizes that if a proposal to cap drug prices is approved, the growth currently forecast for the MS market is likely to be tempered.
Datamonitor Healthcare’s Multiple Sclerosis: Forecast module uses a patient-based forecasting approach to estimate the sales of key marketed and late-phase pipeline drugs across the US, Japan and five major EU markets (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK) during 2016–25.
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