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Pledge
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Progress
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2017 broadly in line with 2013 revenues ($25.7bn)
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Missing target. Q1 revenues $5.4bn; company predicts full-year revenue decline in low to mid-single digits, from 2016 revenues of $23bn.
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Return to growth after 2017
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Challenging, as 29% of 2016 sales ($6.2bn) came from three major products suffering recent generic competition –Nexium,CrestorandSeroquel XR.
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2023 revenues of $45bn
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Datamonitor Healthcare's February 2017 forecast predicts AZ sales will be $25.6bn in 2023. Others are more generous, but it is hard to see revenues reaching much more than $30bn in six years' time without significant M&A activity.
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Peak revenues for Brilinta: $3.5bn
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Target dropped. In October 2016 AZ said the $3.5bn target was no longer attainable afterBrilintafailed to beat older blood thinner clopidogrel in peripheral artery disease or aspirin in stroke. 2016 sales were $839m.
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Peak revenues from diabetes franchise: $8bn
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Sales of key diabetes brands (Farxiga,Onglyza,Bydureon,Byetta) were $2.4bn in 2016. Diabetes is a highly competitive market with significant price pressures. Ambitious target.
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Peak revenues from respiratory: $8bn
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Challenging. 2016 respiratory sales fell by 5% to $4.8bn. BlockbustersPulmicortandSymbicortface generic headwinds and while acquired products like Almirall'sDuaklirand Takeda'sDalirespare set to grow, they are not going to reach the same heights. A lot is riding on pipeline candidates like benralizumab and tralokinumab. Deutsche Bank sees 2022 respiratory sales of $5.7bn.
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Peak revenues from durvalumab (Imfinzi) and combos: $6.5bn
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Expected to grow well, but with Deutsche Bank predicting $2.4bn by 2022, AZ's target looks high. Still, Société Générale believes immuno-oncology sales could reach $5.4bn in 2022.
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Peak revenues from Lynparza: $2bn
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Launched in late 2014 (EU) and early 2015 (US),Lynparzais indicated for ovarian cancer and being studied in cancers including breast, prostate, pancreatic, gastric. It achieved sales of $218m in 2017. Deutsche Bank predicts sales will reach $1.2bn by 2022, Société Générale thinks it could reach $1.6bn by then. AZ target looks ambitious.
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Deliver at least 10 new products between 2013 and 2020
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On track. Products approved since 2013 include: Farxiga (first US approval 2014, although it was approved in the EU in 2012),Epanova(from Omthera acquisition),Xigduo(combo of Farxiga and metformin), Lynparza,Avycaz,Tagrisso,Bevespi Aerosphere,Qtern(combo of Farxiga and Onglyza),Imfinzi(durvalumab). There are 12 new molecular entities in the late-stage pipeline. Recent setbacks include a complete response letter from the FDA for ZS-9 and a Phase III miss for tralokinumab.
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Divest non-core products
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Numerous deals have been signed to divest non-core products.
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